Understanding “Kèo Luân Lưu” (Penalty Shootout Betting): A Practical Guide #2
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In knockout football matches—such as cup competitions, tournaments, or elimination rounds—if the match remains tied after regulation time (and extra time, if played), it often goes to a penalty shootout (“luân lưu” in Vietnamese). For successful soccer prediction bettors, this creates a special market: the penalty shootout bet or kèo luân lưu. Betting on penalty shootouts is more specialized and volatile than usual match or handicap markets. This article explains what “kèo luân lưu” means, how to read those bets, strategies, and precautions.
What Is “Kèo Luân Lưu”?
“Kèo luân lưu” refers to wagers placed specifically on the outcome of the penalty shootout phase of a match—i.e. Who will win on penalties—once the match reaches that stage. These bets exclude results from normal time and extra time (if extra time is used). Sometimes, bookmakers treat these as latest football prediction site separate markets; other times, they are bundled into “match winner including penalties” bets.
Key points:
These bets activate only when a match proceeds to a shootout (i.e. Is tied after all regular and extra time). If the match ends earlier (with a winner in regulation or extra time), the shootout bet may become void or refunded, depending on bookmaker rules.
The bet is strictly about “which team wins the shootout,” not including goals scored in earlier times.
Because penalties are high pressure, psychologically intense, and often unpredictable, the market is riskier and more volatile than typical match betting.
How to Read and Place Penalty Shootout Bets
Here are the main features to understand:
Betting Type
Usually you pick one team to win the shootout. Sometimes there is also an option “no shootout” or “match decided earlier,” but that depends on the bookmaker.
Activation and Void Conditions
Check the rules: if the octopus soccer prediction match finishes in regular time or extra time, the penalty-shootout bet may be void or refunded. Always verify the bookmaker’s rules before placing.
Odds / Implied Probability
Odds for shootouts often reflect uncertainty: they are usually longer (higher returns) than odds for regulation or extra time outcomes. That compensates for the randomness and risk involved.
No Draw Option
Unlike standard 1X2 bets, there’s usually no “draw” option in shootouts: one team must win.
Key Factors to Analyze in Penalty Shootout Betting
Because penalty shootouts tend to hinge on psychological, tactical, and less directly measurable factors, bettors need to dig deeper:
Team Penalty History & Confidence
How have teams performed historically in shootouts?
Are they known to handle pressure well under penalty conditions?
A team that often wins on shootouts or practices penalties more may have an edge.
Goalkeeper Profiles
Some goalkeepers are known penalty specialists (good at saving).
Analyze their save record in shootouts or penalty situations.
Their form, temperament, and penalty-saving reputation matter a lot.
Shooter Depth and Composure
Does the team have confident, experienced penalty takers beyond their first 5?
Depth matters—if it goes beyond the first 5 rounds, can their lesser regular takers handle the pressure?
Fatigue and Mental Pressure
Players may be exhausted after 120 minutes of play.
Mental stress, fatigue, or injuries may affect accuracy.
Teams with fresher legs or stronger mental discipline might perform better under penalty pressure.
Coach and Strategy
Some coaches prioritize penalty shootout preparation (training, psychological readiness).
Substitution strategies (keeping confident kickers on the field) may influence outcomes.
Venue, Support, and Psychological Edge
If one team has more reliable supporters or a psychological edge (e.g. Home crowd, being “underdog” vs “favorite”), it may impact mindset.
The “momentum” from late scoring or an emotional comeback can affect morale heading to shootouts.
Strategies & Tips for Betting on Penalty Shootouts
Here are several practical tactics to guide your approach:
Use Shootout Bets Sparingly
Given the high volatility, don’t make these your mainline bets—reserve them for matches where your analysis gives you a clear edge.
Shop for Shootout Odds
Because fewer bettors focus on shootout markets, different bookmakers may offer significantly different odds. Compare widely.
Leverage Insider Knowledge
If you know about training, team psychology, or penalty practice patterns, that can be a hidden advantage not fully priced by bookmakers.
Avoid Overbetting on Favorites
Favorites in match odds don’t always translate to shootout superiority—shootouts often level the playing field psychologically.
Consider Multi-Round Depth
Favor teams that maintain quality even beyond their top penalty takers (i.e. Depth in squad). If a shootout extends to sudden death, depth often wins.
Manage Bankroll Strictly
Because outcomes are less predictable, stake smaller portions of your bankroll on these markets (e.g. 1–2%). Expect variance.
Watch for Live / In-Play Shootout Markets
Some bookmakers allow bets just before or during shootout sequence (e.g. Choose winner after seeing first kicks). But these lines move fast—only play if you’re quick and confident.
Hedge When Possible
In rare cases you can hedge: for example, if you have a bet on Team A to win shootout and realize your opponent has strong takers later rounds, you may lay or hedge small opposite bets to reduce risk.
Example Scenario
To illustrate:
It’s a cup final. After extra time, the match is tied 1–1.
The bookmaker opens a shootout market: Team A to win on penalties (odds 2.20) vs Team B to win (2.50).
Your research shows:
Team A’s goalkeeper has a strong penalty save record.
Team A practices penalties thoroughly and has reliable takers through rounds 1–5.
Team B, although good at open play, historically struggles in shootouts.
You decide to bet Team A to win shootout—but only a small stake (say 2% of your bankroll) because of the unpredictability.
If a few penalties are missed or the keeper makes early saves, momentum may swing. You may even consider a live adjustment or hedge if possible.
Risks & Caveats
High randomness
Even with good prep, one miss or one save can decide the shootout. Luck plays an outsized role.
Limited liquidity
Penalty markets are less common; odds may be wide and margins high.
Void conditions
If a match doesn’t ever go to shootouts (decided earlier), some bets may be voided. Always check bookmaker rules.
Less public data / research
There is generally less public information or systematic study of penalty shootouts compared to match outcomes, so your edge must come from deeper or insider knowledge.
Psychological stress
Players feel massive pressure, which can lead to mistakes unrelated to form or skill.
Conclusion
“Kèo luân lưu” (penalty shootout betting) offers a fascinating, high-risk, high-reward betting niche. Because penalty shootouts are determined by psychological, technical, and situational factors in a discrete, high-pressure environment, they require deeper analysis, strict risk control, and often a bit of courage. When done prudently—with careful research on historical penalty performance, goalkeeper strengths, team composure, and depth—it can be a valuable addition to a broader betting strategy.